Tuesday, September 30, 2008

30 sep

The BOE ought to cut 200 bps immediately and the ECB 125 bps
How long can these institutions chat up inflation risks as their economies go
down in flames?
UK Mortgage Lending, for example, has literally stopped - period (GBP 0.1
Billion in Net Lending for Aug, vs. levels of GBP 10 Billion just a year ago)
(BoJ Governor Shirakawa bluntly admitted yesterday that USD liquidity across
the globe had almost dried up)
a world-wide scramble for safety, especially dollar-denominated, is keeping the
greenback supported despite the consequences of yesterday's results

We have taken profit on our short EURUSD trade and expect safe-haven currencies
to outperform.

JPY the market is already braced for negative readings.

. The ECB itself has no mechanism to respond to banking failures in a manner
similar to the Fed or the FDIC given the supranational nature of the
organisation, yet ECB President Trichet was heavily involved in discussions over
the weekend with lawmakers in the Low Countries regarding the rescue of a major
regional bank.

he euro/dollar sank to as low as a two-week low and my model went
short. The pair is attempting to recover briefly, but the short-term
outlook remains bearish.

Immediate support is at 1.4305.

The winner out of this is the yen,'' said Toru Umemoto,
chief currency analyst in Tokyo at Barclays Capital, Britain's
third-biggest lender. ``The rejection of the bill has led to an
increase in risk aversion.'

Gains in gold may be limited in the near term because
``there maybe a bit of profit-taking and liquidation of long
positions just to cover the cash costs'' at the end of the
quarter, said Dowsett. ``But overall we expect gold to test $950
an ounce.''

Exchange-traded funds held a record 1,039.68 metric tons of
gold bullion, reflecting concern about the U.S. financial system,
the Financial Times reported on Sept. 24. Investors' bullion
assets have almost doubled in the two years to this month, the
newspaper said, citing the World Gold Counci

EUR USD +: sell
eur cfh droped
usd cad buy

 

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