Dan Gheorghiu's Weblog

Bank of America a preluat Countrywide Financial, odata cel mai mare
creditor ipotecar, si banca americana de investitii Merrill Lynch, care a
inregistrat pierderi in valoare de 24 mld. dolari. Mai mult, banca
Morgan Stanley a pierdut aproape o treime din valoarea activelor in ultimele
trei luni.


Romania are un deficit de cont de numai 14 %, o moneda in regim de
flotare controlata si este mai putin dependenta de exporturi decat
vecina ei din Sud. Insa ar putea avea parte de o aterizare fortata a
economiei. Estimarile privind cresterea economica pentru 2009 sunt de
doar 0,9 %. Sistemul bancar romanesc este mai putin profitabil decat
cel din Bulgaria. Chiar daca sunt detinute de jucatori straini, bancile
romanesti arata o anumita instabilitate. Rezervele straine sunt in
scadere, iar FMI a calculat ca moneda nationala este supraevaluata cu
19 %. Datorita cheltuielilor populiste angajate de la buget pe fondul
campaniei electorale, deficitul public ar putea atinge 3,9 %

Inteleg ca S&P sunt nesimtiti, ca Moody`s la fel, ca Fitch habar nu
are de fundamente, ca bancherii straini sunt prosti si speculanti, dar
acum si jurnalistii britanici vor fi fiind la fel de ignoranti? Analiza
fmi e cu siguranta facuta la plesneala, iar noi stam bine si fericit

he young millionaires of the property market shivered when prices took a dive to levels never seen in the past decade

omania is now the only country in the European Union with a junk
rating on its bonds, which is bad news for the Romanian government,
given that investors are more conscious than ever of ratings
downgrades.

A country which attracted 7.2 bn euros (£5.8bn) worth of investment in 2007, appears to have lost its appeal to investors.

But hardest hit is the once-booming property market. With prices in old
communist blocks of flats falling 30% year-on-year and new developments
also hit by from falling demand, some foreign investment funds have to
quit the country overnight.

There is still time for Romania to engineer a soft landing for its economy.

"The question is whether Romania manages to adjust its pace of
growth through a soft-landing, by controlling spending, or it will take
a massive hit on its currency," he said.



for the first time they turn the Fed into a direct lender to consumers. Many
homeowners, though they do not know it, will be sending their monthly mortgage
payments to the Fed. The Fed will finance these programmes with newly created
reserves: that is, it will print money. Its balance-sheet, which has ballooned
from $900 billion to $2.2 trillion since August, could grow by another $800
billion, making it a larger lender than any commercial bank

It is tempting to look to Japan for a map of where the Fed may be heading next.
Faced with sinking asset prices, insolvent banks, moribund growth and deflation,
the Bank of Japan (BoJ) eventually lowered its policy rate to zero in 1999. In
2001 it announced “quantitative easing”: through large-scale purchases of
government bonds, it would fill the banks with excess reserves that it hoped
they would lend out, stimulating loan growth.

To give it more impact, the Fed could commit itself to keeping the funds rate at
zero for some time or until the economy or inflation meet some predetermined
conditions. Such a commitment could drag down long-term Treasury-bond yields.
Academics have concluded that Japan’s quantitative easing had little benefit
except to buttress expectations that its policy rate would be zero for a long
time. Alternatively, the Fed could target long-term rates via purchases of
Treasuries, as it did from 1942 to 1951. That strategy could gain in appeal if
big government deficits start to press bond yields higher